More token record highs this week. It’s amazing how fast the market switched from negative to positive. That 5% dip from a few weeks back feels normal and distant, and this is usually how it goes, once investors realize how often this type of market behavior happens, they become better investors.
As of Thursday this week, the S&P had posted seven consecutive up days, tying the longest run since early July.
The news of the week is mildly changing, we’re still seeing gridlock in Washington DC but there is some movement as the proposed $3.5 Trillion spending bill has been reduce to $1.5 Trillion- $2 Trillion, inflation is still up a bit, unemployment continues to get better, and supply constraints are getting slightly better. We’re in the middle of corporate earnings season, and it’s going well, taking some worry away for investors. These positive earnings reports are a big part of the reason stocks are back up, notably the S&P 500 is solidly back above its 50 Day Moving Average. We’re not without issues though, think energy costs, tapering, lingering Covid disruptions, and threats of tax increases.
According to CNBC: Weekly jobless claims hit another pandemic-era low last week as the elimination of enhanced benefits sent fewer people to the unemployment line. First-time filings for unemployment insurance totaled 290,000 for the week ending Oct. 16, down 6,000 from the previous week. This was the second week in a row that claims ran below 300,000. Continuing claims also fell to their lowest level since the COVID crisis began, dropping to 2.48 million, a decline of 122,000 from the previous week. This says to us that more people are looking for work, and more people are successfully finding jobs, this is good news.
Notably, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted that global supply chain issues "will not be an issue next year at all". Our take is that supply issues will still be with us as we start the new year, but we’ll see diminishing impact as production and delivery both get back to something like the old normal.
According to the New York Times: The FDA will soon approve mixing and matching of COVID-19 vaccines.
Is Facebook changing its name, that would be interesting for sure!
Michael Gibbs pointed out a couple of interesting facts this week: 1. Copper, which is generally a good economic barometer, is moving higher. 2. The Consumer Discretionary VS. Consumer Staples ratio is moving higher, which shows a “risk-on” mindset on the part of investors, meaning they’re buying stocks. 3. We’re entering the best part of the year for the markets which should start to provide a tailwind going into the last part of the year.
Bottom line is that many datapoints are aligned and pointing in the right direction, we just need to be patient to let it play out.
No Michael Gibbs’ weekly piecek this week.
An interesting piece on Millennials vs Generation X vs Baby Boomers.
Have a great weekend!
Sincerely, DeHaven, Michael, Janet, Mariah and Tamara.